Author Topic: London conference on Afghanistan: preparing for a greater catastrophe  (Read 4002 times)

nestopwar

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London conference on Afghanistan: preparing for a greater catastrophe
Once again, the international community is being dragged to what would be a more catastrophic situation in Afghanistan than the one before 11/9. It has already committed to offer $140 million in the first day of the conference to support a delusive security move, presented by Afghan president Hamid Karazai, and based on the main idea of reintegrating those Taliban fighters who are not associated with any terrorist network. This integration, according to Mr. Karazai, is possible by offering them money, jobs and participation in the current political process.

Endorsing Mr. Karazai’s plan, the final communiqué of the conference welcomed Afghanistan's goal of taking charge of the "majority of operations in the insecure areas of Afghanistan within three years and taking responsibility for physical security within five years". British foreign secretary David Miliband said that the aim of the conference is to help President Karzai and his government deliver the ambitious agenda.

Other main points in the final communiqué are:

Handing over security duties in Afghan provinces to the local authorities starting from late 2010 or early 2011.
Holding a summit in Kabul!! to develop concrete plans for the Afghan government program.
Increasing Afghan military strength to 171,000 and police forces to 134,000 by October 2011.
Irrespective of official statements about this conference, analysts believe it reflects the predicament of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan where they were trapped in a miscalculated war and are now looking for a face-saving exit; as it has always been the case in any conflict involving a part of Muslim world. After nine years of war and violence, all parties in this conference were unanimous that there is no military solution to the Afghan problem.

On the other hand, the unwinnable war in Afghanistan has become very costly in terms of money and lives.

Former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told reporters in Brussels on March 30 last year that the war was costing the allies $42 billion a year.

On November 12 last year, White House Budget director Peter Orszag said that sending extra 40,000 troops would cost the US $40 billion a year as the cost of every solder is roughly one million dollar a year. US has 65,000 troops in Afghanistan at present. This financial burden has become much heavier because of the economic crisis, its social and potential political consequences at home in both US and Europe and the involvement of US in other conflict zones particularly in the Muslim world.

The interesting part of the conference was Mr Karazai’s recipe for solving the problem and its following ingredients:

1- To bribe the common Taliban who, according to him, are fighting for money and not for ideology. They will also be offered jobs in the government institutions. However, neither Mr. Karzai nor leaders of the international community said if the strongest CIA base in Afghanistan could be infiltrated by the Jordanian doctor who killed seven of its official, how can Mr. Karazai’s recipe identify everyone’ allegiance and faith .

2- He admitted in an interview with the BBC two days after the conference the weakness of his government in clear words saying that “My presidency is weak in regard to the means of power, which means money, which means equipment, which means manpower, which means capacity”.

3- What guarantees Mr. Karazai has from the bribed Taliban to remain loyal and not to change sides if paid by the militant Taliban more than what he pays them from the donors’ money?

4- When the “good” Taliban get access to government institutions, who guarantee that they will not pass sensitive information onto the “bad Taliban” and the terrorist networks to facilitate their operations or carry out operations themselves? Mr. Karazai’s recipe will be the most dangerous for any foreign guest who visits Kabul.

5- When jobs are given to the well-bribed Taliban, all are Pashtoons, this will trigger off more rivalries between them and other ethnic communities and throw the country back into civil war.

6- Although Mr. Obama hopes that the Afghan military and security forces will be ready to start taking the charge from his forces by mid 2011 so they can begin pulling out, while Mr. Karazai wants this to happen by 2014, both dates are just a dream.

7- Even if God was on their side and Afghan forces took over, one of the following two scenarios is likely to happen:

A- The country will go back to warlordism hence civil war because of weak administration, corruption and other evils.

B- The army will step in to control the situation and Europe will welcome the military coup for a while before the war erupts between army and security forces on one side and the Taliban and other groups on the other. The Afghan forces will split and the country goes back to square one.

8- The biggest catastrophic pillar of Mr. Karazai ‘s plan is what he announced in his inaugural speech about getting Saudi Arabia fully involved as sponsor of his proposed recipe. In this regard, he visited the kingdom a week after the conference. We all have seen how Saudi Arabia and its intelligence manipulated the jihadist groups, Afghans and non-Afghans, during the soviet occupation and the civil war afterwards to spread its ideology, the Wahaabism (salafism or militant Islam). It was the first country that recognized the Taliban regime when it came to power. Both the bad Taliban and the potential good Taliban are Wahhabis by ideology and faith. If Saudi Arabia is allowed to become Godfather of Mr. Karazai’s new initiative, its priority will be to wahabize Afghanistan as this is the first strategic objective it has been thriving for.

9- Saudi Arabia seeks to establish a wahhabi state next door to the Shiite Iran and this will result in the following:

A- Armed clashes between different sects in Afghanistan.

B- Some section in the Pakistani intelligence ISI may welcome the Saudi involvement so they can counter the Indian influence in Afghanistan but this will be very harmful for Pakistan internally and regionally. Internally: it will destabilize Pakistan as more wahhabism means more targeting of the already targeted Shiite minority. Regionally, it will create tensions between Pakistan and its strategic backyard, Iran, which helped her during her wars with India.

C- More wahabization means more militancy, radicalization and terrorism in a region that already has surplus production of these commodities.

Washington will certainly be mistaken if it thinks it can clone in Afghanistan through Karazai the Sunni Iraqi Sahwa (awakening) councils, a Sunni militia paid and armed by US and the Iraqi government to oppose the Sunni militants, as the situation in Afghanistan is entirely different and moreover, the Sahwa experiment has not succeeded but it has become a clicking time bomb.

The Taliban described the London conference as a “waste of time“ but from western perspective some experts describe it as “a waste of taxpayers and donors’ money, a waste of lives and a preparation for a greater Afghan catastrophe”.